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Market mapping
We size your market against your buy box: how many businesses fit, how many clear your financing, who else is active in the same shape, and which criterion is doing the most work. Delivered as a readout you can circulate.
Proprietary deal origination · Lower middle market
We map your market, build the target list to your buy box, and run outreach across the channels owners actually respond to — so your time goes into seller conversations rather than spreadsheets.
01 — Candidate routes from a single thesis
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01
We size your market against your buy box: how many businesses fit, how many clear your financing, who else is active in the same shape, and which criterion is doing the most work. Delivered as a readout you can circulate.
02
The named businesses that fit, each with an owner, contact details and the record of what we cut and why. Every one carries a read on how likely that owner is to sell — owner age and tenure, whether there's a successor in the business or children in the trade, how long the company has been family-held, whether it has been listed or shopped before, and what the brokers in that market have already touched. It's an estimate of likelihood, not a claim to know anyone's intentions. Built to be worked anywhere: email, phone, WhatsApp, Facebook, direct mail.
03
We take the list and work it across every channel, handle the replies, and put seller conversations in your calendar. Weekly call, monthly summary of what moved and what changed.
Where a deal needs something that isn't on this list, we'll do that part too. The engagement is judged on one thing.
We'd rather you close in month six and stop paying us than subscribe for two years. Everything worth building sits on the other side of you owning something.
Why Zermelo
A ship sets for a point on the far shore while the wind and current move underneath it. Zermelo's answer: the fastest heading almost never points straight at the destination, and it doesn't stay fixed — it gets recalculated as conditions change.
Origination behaves the same way. What comes back in month two should change where you're pointed in month three: which industries reply, which owners are movable, where financing actually clears. The buy box you wrote at the start is the one you were least informed to write.
So we recalculate, and we show you the working.
Über das Navigationsproblem bei ruhender oder veränderlicher Windverteilung, 1931
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We'd rather show you the build order than imply everything is finished.
Market readout
Free, turned around in a few days.
The list
Screened businesses with owner details, exclusion reasoning and channel routing. You can start here today.
Email outreach
Sequenced, sent and worked. Replies routed to you.
Phone and direct mail at volume
Running now in a limited way, scaling through [quarter].
WhatsApp and social outreach
Where the owner profile suits it.
More verticals
Each new industry is a one-time build. Tell us yours and it moves up the order.
One more thing, because it's the standard practice in this corner of the market: your screening isn't handed to interns and billed back to you as analyst hours. The screen is built once, properly, and reused. That's why the pricing works and why the reasoning is the same on every company in your list.
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Most buyers spend twelve to twenty-four months before they close. Priced by the hour, quality is the first thing cut — so we price on output instead. You pay for businesses screened and conversations booked, at a level you can carry for two years without flinching.
Free
Your market, sized against your buy box, delivered as a page and a PDF.
No call required
$[set] / month
$[set] / month
Billed on output, not on hours. You're charged for businesses screened and conversations booked, never for time logged. Activity is cheap to produce. Quality isn't, and it's the only thing here worth paying for.
No setup fee. No annual lock-in. Monthly, 30 days' notice. [confirm]
05 —
| Zermelo | List vendors | In-house analyst | Broker deals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| What you're buying | Screened businesses, with reasons | Volume of names | One person's output | Listed, marketed businesses |
| Who screens them | Us, against your buy box | Nobody | Whoever you hired | The broker, for the seller |
| Likelihood-to-sell read | On every business | No | If they build it | Already selling — and so is everyone else |
| Reason for every rejection | Yes, in full | No | Rarely written down | No |
| Outreach across channels | Yes | No | One person's capacity | — |
| Your hours per usable target | Under 1 | 4–6 | 2–3 | 1, plus a competitive process |
| Ramp | Days | Immediate | 4–8 weeks | Ongoing |
| Monthly cost | $[set]–$[set] | $[low] | $[6–9k] loaded | Free |
| Cost per usable target | $[set] | $[set] — most are unusable | $[set] | Paid in price, not in fees |
| Data is yours | Yes | Usually | Yes | — |
Fairly: a list vendor's invoice is smaller and an analyst is more flexible. But a list you have to screen yourself isn't cheaper — it moves the cost onto the most expensive person in your firm. Broker deals cost nothing to find and everything to win.
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Independent sponsors
Searchers
Consolidators and roll-ups
Holdcos and permanent capital
Different buy boxes, same requirement — proprietary flow that stands up to scrutiny.
Research
Every post contains a figure someone could check, and the method behind it. If we get one wrong we publish the correction rather than editing the original.
How many HVAC companies are actually big enough to buy?
We counted licensed mechanical contractors in five states and filtered to those above an eight-technician floor. The number is a fraction of what the trade bodies report.
[date] · [N] min
The criterion that costs the most
Across every readout we've run, one type of screen removes more of the market than the person writing it realised.
[date] · [N] min
What a 4% reply rate actually means
Direct mail benchmarks in acquisition outreach, and why the figure quoted at conferences doesn't survive contact.
[date] · [N] min
09 —
A readout inside a few days, then your first screened list. Roughly [N] businesses with owner details, the exclusion reasoning behind each, and a likelihood-to-sell read. Enough to start contacting in week two.
Send us your buy box. We'll come back with how big it really is.